Magnus Marketing Blog

Oh, what a great Harvard Business Case study the Conan O'Brien/Jay Leno situation will make when someone writes it up. A great study in decision-making, talent retention, public reputation, ratings/money & profit, and more. I admire both Jay Leno and Conan O'Brien and enjoy their shows, although Conan's show lost its luster for me over time. I did enjoy seeing his show taped live in NY, went a couple of times. Here is my commentary.

1. If something is working, don't break it. Never, ever promise anyone anything that there is no intention on delivering on or put conditions on it. If Jay retired, if the ratings fell, if Jay wanted to go - then the show is Conan's to take over. It was just bad, bad, bad to promise and not follow through. It creates bad blood and a situation where regardless the person not only will leave, but leave for a competitor. Hey, I was promised a "Sales Intelligence Director" position which my employer reneged on, I was quite Conanized, so...I now have my own business, while my former boss got himself a job.

2. Conan stated that he didn't want to destroy the Tonight Show and he didn't have time to build ratings. On point one, he DID destroy the Tonight Show - all that was done was taking a "watered down version" (sans masturbating bear) of the Late Show w/Conan O'Brien to 11:35. He did NOT step into the Tonight Show and did NOT adapt his material to the 11:35 audience. I tuned out when the guy who repeats stuff loudly started the dumb stuff with Twitter. I quickly realized that this was the same stuff he did at 12:30 and my expectations were dashed. Brand equity means consistency. Everything from the set, music, and logo should have been retained with more mainstream "Jayish" skits, over time - the Conan stuff could wend its way back in to the format. Oddly, the really good funny stuff like the "interviews" with Arnold, Clinton, etc were removed. On point two, not only was he expected to take his core audience with him to 11:35, but those folks who couldn't stay up and wanted to see his show would tune in. Again, expectations were dashed.

3. Underestimated INDIRECT competition. Sure, the focus groups indicated Jay would work at 10, but they forgot about the new shows on CABLE. While CSI may repeat at 10, Drop-Dead-Diva (a super show) premiers in the summer. While I love Jay, I'd rather watch Drop-Dead-Diva on Monday at 10. Also, Jay needed to really keep it fresh and COMPELLING every night, the material and format at 11:35 competes well against other material (apples to apples - repeats, talk shows), he is competing with compelling storylines, ongoing characters, and compelling content (Dateline Mysteries). Having the Green Car Challenge everyday - BORING. 10 at 10 everyday- BORING. He should have mixed it up more, created some interesting stuff like: 1) a new comedian showcase, 2) popular hot star with extended movie preview, 3) entertainment scoop news, 4) fresh SNL type comedy skits, 5) hot music group. The idea was good, the execution was not.

4. KPI's. If the ratings aren't there, try something else. They cancelled both shows essentially before reformatting or "fixing" them to try to meet the public needs. Re-engineer the shows a bit, cut the days, mix up the format, anything before changing the line up.

5. Unanticipated issues and poor response. It didn't work and the effects were far-ranging. From unhappy affiliates to negative press to other late-night hosts gleefully destroying the targets, it became a public mess ever-widened by the blogosphere and social media. The suits at NBC really should have dealt with the situation early by making a statement much like Leno did earlier this week. The generational gap was also exposed as Leno professionally and upstandingly made a superior commentary on the situation, while O'Brien lashed out at NBC, Leno, and anyone else. Talk about bad-mouthing the boss, O'Brien got that down pat! Sometimes, however, that behavior is justified.

6. It's Business. With all the polarization for Leno or O'Brien, no one thought about the business end. The ratings drive cancellation, neither show performed well. Conan had his shot, he couldn't make it. Leno had his shot, he couldn't make it. End of story. As Leno said, "I have a staff of 175 people to take care of and when the boss offers you a job, you get humble"...like any great boss - both men had to look out for their staff support. No one seems to comment about the loyalty and concern for their employees BOTH of them demonstrated. It is beyond admirable. And, as usual, the executives who "dick around" with their subordinates lives suffer nothing. No one at NBC is having their head rolling! Accountability?

There is much more. Regular people like you and me have been through similiar stuff, but we don't make the entertainment news. Look at the polarization, disruption, loss of talent, bad blood, and overall general mess this situation has caused. It happens more often than not with similiar consequences from organizations like GE/NBC to tiny start-ups where the devastation can be even greater. Lesson noted.